Where does the 33.33% threshold for selfish mining come from?

Observations suggest that an increase in stale blocks, which has risen from 1 per 1300 to 1 per 1000 over recent months, may be indicative of deeper systemic issues potentially exacerbated by knots. This pattern hints at underlying challenges in achieving a consistent view of the mempool, which is crucial for the swift relay of blocks across the network. The speculation is that miners' inclusion of a significant number of transactions with fees lower than one satoshi per byte in blocks might be contributing to these delays, especially among nodes not updated or configured to handle such transactions efficiently.

The economic aspects of Bitcoin mining, particularly the shift from reward-based to fee-based incentives, present a complex landscape influenced by block production rates and transaction space availability. This transition raises questions about the potential for inflation within Bitcoin's capped supply and how changes in the mining dynamic could affect transaction fees and, consequently, miner revenue. The conversation taps into theoretical scenarios where manipulating the difficulty algorithm could drastically alter block production, thereby affecting the transaction volume capacity and possibly miner income. This exploration, enriched by insights from the Forward Blocks presentation, underscores the delicate balance between maintaining Bitcoin's fixed supply and adjusting to a fee-centric mining economy.

Timestamp accuracy within blockchain operations emerges as a critical factor for maintaining network integrity and preventing practices like selfish mining. The discussion elaborates on various methods nodes can employ to ensure precise timekeeping, including relying on the timestamps of the most-work chain and leveraging astronomical observations for decentralized clock calibration. Such strategies aim to mitigate risks associated with centralized time sources and enhance the reliability of blockchain ecosystems. Furthermore, the narrative aligns with broader concerns over how timestamp manipulation could influence transaction speeds, block space utility, and ultimately, the cryptocurrency's value.

The synchronization of node operation times presents technical and strategic challenges within distributed ledger technologies. Proposals to improve consistency and fairness across all nodes include setting initial "tip" headers based on the highest common block and investing in secure time-keeping infrastructures like stratum 1 NTP servers. These suggestions aim to address vulnerabilities to timing discrepancies and enhance the overall robustness of blockchain operations against potential manipulations or inaccuracies in timekeeping.

Network latency and its impact on block propagation are critically analyzed through the lens of stale blocks and the efficiency of the network's performance. The recharacterization of network delays and the subsequent exploration of stale block occurrences offer insightful reflections on the technical and strategic dimensions of blockchain functionality. This analysis not only delves into the technicalities of network performance but also considers the implications of fairness and competitive behavior within the mining ecosystem.

The concept of Fibre miners and the subtle advantages they gain through superior connectivity highlights concerns over equity within the mining landscape. This advantage, while seemingly marginal, underscores broader issues of fairness and potential manipulation within blockchain networks. The exploration into the mechanics behind block visibility delays and their impact on miner rewards emphasizes the need for equitable practices and technological solutions to mitigate disparities in mining competition.

Accurate timestamping in blockchain transactions is pivotal for ensuring network integrity and mitigating manipulative practices such as selfish mining. Proposals for enhancing the fairness of blockchain operations through accurate and honest timestamping suggest prioritizing blocks with reasonable timestamps and instituting a timeout for blocks that do not meet specific criteria. This approach aims to deter unfair advantages and maintain the trustworthiness of blockchain technology.

Lastly, the robustness of consensus mechanisms in blockchain systems is scrutinized, revealing that securing genuine security extends beyond simple majority rules. Conditions such as synchronized clocks, digitally signed messages, and narrow timestamp windows are essential for overcoming vulnerabilities to attacks like selfish mining. The discussion provides a comprehensive overview of the technical and strategic considerations necessary for maintaining secure and fair blockchain networks, highlighting the intricate balance required to safeguard the integrity of digital ledger technologies.